Designing a Supply Chain Network under the Risk of Disruptions

This paper studies a supply chain design problem with the risk of disruptions at facilities. At any point of time, the facilities are subject to various types of disruptions caused by natural disasters, man-made defections, and equipment breakdowns. We formulate the problem as a mixed-integer nonlinear program which maximizes the total profit for the whole system. The model simultaneously determines the number and location of facilities, the subset of customers to serve, the assignment of customers to facilities, and the cycle-order quantities at facilities. In order to obtain near-optimal solutions with reasonable computational requirements for large problem instances, two solution methods based on Lagrangian relaxation and genetic algorithm are developed. The effectiveness of the proposed solution approaches is shown using numerical experiments. The computational results, in addition, demonstrate that the benefits of considering disruptions in the supply chain design model can be significant

Deterrence and prevention-based model to mitigate information security insider threats in organisations

This is an accepted manuscript of an article published by Elsevier in Future Generation Computer Systems, available online: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.future.2019.03.024 The accepted version of the publication may differ from the final published version.Previous studies show that information security breaches and privacy violations are important issues for organisations and people. It is acknowledged that decreasing the risk in this domain requires consideration of the technological aspects of information security alongside human aspects. Employees intentionally or unintentionally account for a significant portion of the threats to information assets in organisations. This research presents a novel conceptual framework to mitigate the risk of insiders using deterrence and prevention approaches. Deterrence factors discourage employees from engaging in information security misbehaviour in organisations, and situational crime prevention factors encourage them to prevent information security misconduct. Our findings show that perceived sanctions certainty and severity significantly influence individuals’ attitudes and deter them from information security misconduct. In addition, the output revealed that increasing the effort, risk and reducing the reward (benefits of crime) influence the employees’ attitudes towards prevent information security misbehaviour. However, removing excuses and reducing provocations do not significantly influence individuals’ attitudes towards prevent information security misconduct. Finally, the output of the data analysis also showed that subjective norms, perceived behavioural control and attitude influence individuals’ intentions, and, ultimately, their behaviour towards avoiding information security misbehaviour.Published versio

Gestational age at birth and body size from infancy through adolescence: An individual participant data meta-analysis on 253,810 singletons in 16 birth cohort studies

Background Preterm birth is the leading cause of perinatal morbidity and mortality and is associated with adverse developmental and long-term health outcomes, including several cardiometabolic risk factors and outcomes. However, evidence about the association of preterm birth with later body size derives mainly from studies using birth weight as a proxy of prematurity rather than an actual length of gestation. We investigated the association of gestational age (GA) at birth with body size from infancy through adolescence. Methods and findings We conducted a two-stage individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis using data from 253,810 mother-child dyads from 16 general population-based cohort studies in Europe (Denmark, Finland, France, Italy, Norway, Portugal, Spain, the Netherlands, United Kingdom), North America (Canada), and Australasia (Australia) to estimate the association of GA with body mass index (BMI) and overweight (including obesity) adjusted for the following maternal characteristics as potential confounders: education, height, prepregnancy BMI, ethnic background, parity, smoking during pregnancy, age at child's birth, gestational diabetes and hypertension, and preeclampsia. Pregnancy and birth cohort studies from the LifeCycle and the EUCAN-Connect projects were invited and were eligible for inclusion if they had information on GA and minimum one measurement of BMI between infancy and adolescence. Using a federated analytical tool (DataSHIELD), we fitted linear and logistic regression models in each cohort separately with a complete-case approach and combined the regression estimates and standard errors through random-effects study-level meta-analysis providing an overall effect estimate at early infancy (>0.0 to 0.5 years), late infancy (>0.5 to 2.0 years), early childhood (>2.0 to 5.0 years), mid-childhood (>5.0 to 9.0 years), late childhood (>9.0 to 14.0 years), and adolescence (>14.0 to 19.0 years). GA was positively associated with BMI in the first decade of life, with the greatest increase in mean BMI z-score during early infancy (0.02, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.00; 0.05, p < 0.05) per week of increase in GA, while in adolescence, preterm individuals reached similar levels of BMI (0.00, 95% CI: -0.01; 0.01, p 0.9) as term counterparts. The association between GA and overweight revealed a similar pattern of association with an increase in odds ratio (OR) of overweight from late infancy through mid-childhood (OR 1.01 to 1.02) per week increase in GA. By adolescence, however, GA was slightly negatively associated with the risk of overweight (OR 0.98 [95% CI: 0.97; 1.00], p 0.1) per week of increase in GA. Although based on only four cohorts (n = 32,089) that reached the age of adolescence, data suggest that individuals born very preterm may be at increased odds of overweight (OR 1.46 [95% CI: 1.03; 2.08], p < 0.05) compared with term counterparts. Findings were consistent across cohorts and sensitivity analyses despite considerable heterogeneity in cohort characteristics. However, residual confounding may be a limitation in this study, while findings may be less generalisable to settings in low- and middle-income countries. Conclusions This study based on data from infancy through adolescence from 16 cohort studies found that GA may be important for body size in infancy, but the strength of association attenuates consistently with age. By adolescence, preterm individuals have on average a similar mean BMI to peers born at term.This collaborative project received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (Grant Agreement No. 733206 LifeCycle, Grand Recipient VWVJ; Grant Agreement No. 824989 EUCAN-Connect, Grand Recipient AMNA). Please, see S1 Appendix for list of cohort-specific funding/support. DAL is supported by the UK Medical Research Council (MC_UU_00011/6) and British Heart Foundation (CH/F/20/90003 and AA/18/7/34219). RCW is supported by UKRI Innovation Fellowship with Health Data Research UK [MR/S003959/1]. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

The CB1 receptor antagonist AM251 impairs reconsolidation of pavlovian fear memory in the rat basolateral amygdala

We have investigated the requirement for signaling at CB1 receptors in the reconsolidation of a previously consolidated auditory fear memory, by infusing the CB1 receptor antagonist AM251, or the FAAH inhibitor URB597, directly into the basolateral amygdala (BLA) in conjunction with memory reactivation. AM251 disrupted memory restabilization, but only when administered after reactivation. URB597 produced a small, transient enhancement of memory restabilization when administered after reactivation. The amnestic effect of AM251 was rescued by coadministration of the GABAA receptor antagonist bicuculline at reactivation, indicating that the disruption of reconsolidation was mediated by altered GABAergic transmission in the BLA. These data show that the endocannabinoid system in the BLA is an important modulator of fear memory reconsolidation and that its effects on memory are mediated by an interaction with the GABAergic system. Thus, targeting the endocannabinoid system may have therapeutic potential to reduce the impact of maladaptive memories in neuropsychiatric disorders such as posttraumatic stress disorder.This work was conducted within the Behavioural and Clinical Neuroscience Institute, a joint initiative funded by the Wellcome Trust and the UK Medical Research Council, in the Department of Psychology at the University of Cambridge. This work was funded by a UK Medical Research Council programme grant (no. G1002231) awarded to BJE and ALM. PR was supported by a Department of Physiology and Pharmacology Fellowship at the Sapienza University of Rome, and an Italian Society of Pharmacology Fellowship. ALM is the Ferreras-Willetts Fellow in Neuroscience at Downing College, Cambridge. The manuscript was partly prepared while ALM was an Erskine Visiting Cambridge Fellow at the University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand

Managing facility disruption in hub-and-spoke networks: formulations and efficient solution methods

Hub disruption result in substantially higher transportation cost and customer dissatisfaction. In this study, first a mathematical model to design hub-and-spoke networks under hub failure is presented. For a fast and inexpensive recovery, the proposed model constructs networks in which every single demand point will have a backup hub to be served from in case of disruption. The problem is formulated as a mixed integer quadratic program in a way that could be linearized without significantly increasing the number of variables. To further ease the model’ computational burden, indicator constraints are employed in the linearized model. The resulting formulation produced optimal solutions for small and some medium size instances. To tackle large problems, three efficient particle swarm optimisation-based metaheuristics which incorporate efficient solution representation, short-term memory and special crossover operator are proposed. We present the results for two scenarios relating to high and low probabilities of hub failures and provide managerial insight. The computational results, using problem instances with various sizes taken from CAB and TR datasets, confirm the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed problem formulation and our new solution techniques

Guidelines for the use and interpretation of assays for monitoring autophagy (3rd edition)

In 2008 we published the first set of guidelines for standardizing research in autophagy. Since then, research on this topic has continued to accelerate, and many new scientists have entered the field. Our knowledge base and relevant new technologies have also been expanding. Accordingly, it is important to update these guidelines for monitoring autophagy in different organisms. Various reviews have described the range of assays that have been used for this purpose. Nevertheless, there continues to be confusion regarding acceptable methods to measure autophagy, especially in multicellular eukaryotes. For example, a key point that needs to be emphasized is that there is a difference between measurements that monitor the numbers or volume of autophagic elements (e.g., autophagosomes or autolysosomes) at any stage of the autophagic process versus those that measure fl ux through the autophagy pathway (i.e., the complete process including the amount and rate of cargo sequestered and degraded). In particular, a block in macroautophagy that results in autophagosome accumulation must be differentiated from stimuli that increase autophagic activity, defi ned as increased autophagy induction coupled with increased delivery to, and degradation within, lysosomes (inmost higher eukaryotes and some protists such as Dictyostelium ) or the vacuole (in plants and fungi). In other words, it is especially important that investigators new to the fi eld understand that the appearance of more autophagosomes does not necessarily equate with more autophagy. In fact, in many cases, autophagosomes accumulate because of a block in trafficking to lysosomes without a concomitant change in autophagosome biogenesis, whereas an increase in autolysosomes may reflect a reduction in degradative activity. It is worth emphasizing here that lysosomal digestion is a stage of autophagy and evaluating its competence is a crucial part of the evaluation of autophagic flux, or complete autophagy. Here, we present a set of guidelines for the selection and interpretation of methods for use by investigators who aim to examine macroautophagy and related processes, as well as for reviewers who need to provide realistic and reasonable critiques of papers that are focused on these processes. These guidelines are not meant to be a formulaic set of rules, because the appropriate assays depend in part on the question being asked and the system being used. In addition, we emphasize that no individual assay is guaranteed to be the most appropriate one in every situation, and we strongly recommend the use of multiple assays to monitor autophagy. Along these lines, because of the potential for pleiotropic effects due to blocking autophagy through genetic manipulation it is imperative to delete or knock down more than one autophagy-related gene. In addition, some individual Atg proteins, or groups of proteins, are involved in other cellular pathways so not all Atg proteins can be used as a specific marker for an autophagic process. In these guidelines, we consider these various methods of assessing autophagy and what information can, or cannot, be obtained from them. Finally, by discussing the merits and limits of particular autophagy assays, we hope to encourage technical innovation in the field

Global variations in diabetes mellitus based on fasting glucose and haemogloblin A1c

Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) are both used to diagnose diabetes, but may identify different people as having diabetes. We used data from 117 population-based studies and quantified, in different world regions, the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes, and whether those who were previously undiagnosed and detected as having diabetes in survey screening had elevated FPG, HbA1c, or both. We developed prediction equations for estimating the probability that a person without previously diagnosed diabetes, and at a specific level of FPG, had elevated HbA1c, and vice versa. The age-standardised proportion of diabetes that was previously undiagnosed, and detected in survey screening, ranged from 30% in the high-income western region to 66% in south Asia. Among those with screen-detected diabetes with either test, the agestandardised proportion who had elevated levels of both FPG and HbA1c was 29-39% across regions; the remainder had discordant elevation of FPG or HbA1c. In most low- and middle-income regions, isolated elevated HbA1c more common than isolated elevated FPG. In these regions, the use of FPG alone may delay diabetes diagnosis and underestimate diabetes prevalence. Our prediction equations help allocate finite resources for measuring HbA1c to reduce the global gap in diabetes diagnosis and surveillance.peer-reviewe

Incorporating location, routing and inventory decisions in supply chain network design

This paper for the first time presents a novel model to simultaneously optimize location, allocation, capacity, inventory, and routing decisions in a stochastic supply chain system. Each customer's demand is uncertain and follows a normal distribution, and each distribution center maintains a certain amount of safety stock. To solve the model, first we present an exact solution method by casting the problem as a mixed integer convex program, and then we establish a heuristic method based on a hybridization of Tabu Search and Simulated Annealing. The results show that the proposed heuristic is considerably efficient and effective for a broad range of problem sizes.Distribution network Integrated supply chain design Facility location Inventory control Vehicle routing Capacity level

Designing a Supply Chain Network under the Risk of Disruptions

This paper studies a supply chain design problem with the risk of disruptions at facilities. At any point of time, the facilities are subject to various types of disruptions caused by natural disasters, man-made defections, and equipment breakdowns. We formulate the problem as a mixed-integer nonlinear program which maximizes the total profit for the whole system. The model simultaneously determines the number and location of facilities, the subset of customers to serve, the assignment of customers to facilities, and the cycle-order quantities at facilities. In order to obtain near-optimal solutions with reasonable computational requirements for large problem instances, two solution methods based on Lagrangian relaxation and genetic algorithm are developed. The effectiveness of the proposed solution approaches is shown using numerical experiments. The computational results, in addition, demonstrate that the benefits of considering disruptions in the supply chain design model can be significant